Afternoon Note
04 September 2023
Support & Resistance Levels
Data This Week
Market Highlights
Market Close
South Africa
Global Markets
Overnight Headlines
Support & Resistance Levels
ZAR weakened in early Monday trading, reaching R18.900/$ on the back of a broad-based Dollar rebound.
Today’s Market Support and Resistance Levels:

Data This Week
Monday
**US HOLIDAY
Tuesday
09H15 S&P SA PMI’S 49 F/CAST VS 48.2 pREVIOUS
11H30 SA GDP GROWTH RATE 1.1% YOY EXPECTED VS 0.2% PREVIOUS
16H00 US FACTORY ORDERS -2.5% EXPECTED VS 2.3% PREVIOUS
17H30 US TREASURY BILL AUCTIONS 3M AND 6M
Wednesday
16H00 US ISM SERVICES PMI 52.5 EXPECTED VS 52.7 PREVIOUS
Thursday
11H00 SA CURRENT ACCOUNBT R-178BN VS R-66BN PREVIOUS
14H30 JOBLESS CLAIMS 235K EXPECTED VS 228K
Friday
10H00 SA CONSUMER CONFIDENCE -28 F/CAST VS -25 PREVIOUS
Market Highlights
The Rand suffering losses of nearly 30 cents since the Friday “NFP high” of R18.6000/$
The local unit trading sharply higher to reach R18.9000 at high noon.
Traders citing poor liquidity conditions due to the US Labour day holiday but also overall Dollar strength.
Yields also higher after stronger than expected PMI data and after Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester said “…inflation remains too high and the labour market remains historically strong…”.
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- The comments clashed with a batch of softer-than-expected labour data.
- This after the unemployment rate rose past expectations and wage growth rose at a slower pace.
Dollar buying the order of the day, with the markets bracing for tomorrow’s SA GDP and US services PMI.
Technically we appear to be testing the topside of the USDZAR , R18.60-18.90/$ range and market momentum pointing to a break.
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- If confirmed USDZAR target R19.0800 before R19.2500.
NB, we expect a muted session due to the American’s celebrating their Labour day holiday.
Trade : Long Dollars, add above R18.9000/$
Market Close
DOW
+115 to 34,838
SP500
+8 to 4,515
NASDAQ
-3 to 15,572
Overnight Trading

image: Trading economics
South Africa
LADY R REPORT
The full panel report into the now-debunked claims that SA supplied Russia with arms through the Lady R cargo vessel will be kept classified.
President Cyril Ramaphosa said he would release an executive summary of it on Monday.
He added that he would not disclose the independent panel’s full investigative report into the Russian cargo vessel.
In a Sunday evening address to the nation, Ramaphosa confirmed that the probe, led by retired judge Phineas Mojapelo, found no evidence that arms were loaded onto the ship, putting an end to months of speculation.
He added, “No evidence weapons were loaded onto the ship” – Ramaphosa on Lady R probe.
Source: EWN.
TRANSNET
Transnet dagger pointed at the heart of SA’s economy.
The ports and rail operator will knock 5% off GDP in 2023, coming on top of a negative 6% in 2022.
A study by the GAIN Group says inefficiencies at Transnet are costing the economy R1 billion a day, the Study added, most of this coming from lost sales of coal and iron ore.
The GAIN Group study comes just days after Transnet announced a R5.7 billion loss for the year to March 2023.
It was reversing the R5 billion profit for the previous year.
The logistics operator blamed lower rail volumes due to operational ineffectiveness and flooding in Kwazulu-Natal.
Global Markets
Stocks
The Dow Jones closed 116 points higher on Friday, the S&P 500 added almost 0.2% and while the Nasdaq finished marginally lower.
The index closes following job data that showed the labour market is cooling, to give Fed room to pause the tightening cycle.
The US economy added 187K jobs, exceeding market expectations of 170K but following a 110K downward revision to the prior two months of payrolls.
Also, the jobless rate rose to 3.8%, the highest since February 2022 and above forecasts of 3.5%.
On the other hand, Broadcom fell by 5.5% and VMware lost 2.8% on disappointing updates.
On the week, the Dow is up 0.6% so far, the S&P 500 1.9% and the Nasdaq 2.6%.
Source: Trading economics
Bonds
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury surged toward the 4.2% mark on Friday, rebounding from the three-week low of 4.06% earlier in the session as markets assessed the Fed’s policy outlook this year.
Better-than-expected PMI data in the US eased concerns over the extent of manufacturers’ slowdowns.
However, Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester said that inflation remains too high and the labour market remains historically strong.
In the meantime, the sharp increase in bond supply by the US Treasury during August auctions, paired with an increasing concern about unsustainable budget deficits, heightened the risk of holding US bonds –
Resulting in HIGHER US YIELDS.
Source: CNBC

Overnight Headlines
