Afternoon Note
11 September 2023
Support & Resistance Levels
Data This Week
Market Highlights
Market Close
South Africa
Global Markets
Overnight Headlines
ZAR stronger after BOJ hints at rate normalisation.
Today’s Market & Resistance Levels
Data This Week
Monday
13H00 **SA MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION 2.3% (ACTUAL) VS 4.4% EXPECTED
17H00 US CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 3.4% F/CAST VS 3.5% PREVIOUS
Tuesday
08H00 UK unemployment 4.3% expected vs 4.2% previous
Wednesday
08H00 UK GDP MOM -0.2% VS 0.5% expected.
14h30 US INFLATION 3.6% expected vs 3.2% previous
14h30 US CORE INFLATION
Thursday
11h30 SA MINING PRODUCTION 0.5% VS 1.1% YOY PREVIOUS
14H30 US PPI 2.2% EXPECTED VS 2.4% YOY PREVIOUS
14H30 US RETAIL SALES 0.2% MOM VS 0.7% PREVIOUS
14H30 US JOBLESS CLAIMS 226K VS 216K PREVIOUS
Friday
16H00 US CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MICHIGAN 69.2 VS 69.5 PREVIOUS
Market Highlights
The Rand recovered sharply to reach 18.8800 in early trading
The local unit benefitting from a Dollar sell-off after the BOJ indicated they considering an end to 9 years of “zero rate” policies.
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- The Yen, the primary driver sending the Dollar sharply lower and the local unit benefiting from the news.
The week, however, dominated by key US inflation data on Wednesday.
Markets remain on edge and volatility like to increase ahead of the data.
Markets trading with a risk on sentiment with European stocks, and US equity futures all well bid in early Monday trading.
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- Yields are however rising on the back of a strong US data set ahead of CPI/PPI this week.
- The 10YT at 4.29%
Earlier, SA manufacturing data reported at much lower than expected 2.3% yoy vs 4.4% expected and also -1.6% MoM 0.5% expected.
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- Indicating the continuous effects of the SA power crises.
Markets however ignoring the sharp drop and the focus remains on the Dollar.
Technically we’re trading R19/$ and the momentum has shifted ahead of the CPI report.
Market is now a SELL US DOLLARS on rallies (i.e. BUY ZAR).
Trade: SELL Dollars on Rallies
Market Close
DOW
+75 to 34,576
SP500
+6 to 4,465
NASDAQ
+12 to 15,380
Overnight Trading
Image: Trading Economics
South Africa
SA TOURISM – CLUB MED IN KZN DEVELOPMENT
It’s the worst-kept ‘secret’ on the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) North Coast, but the long-awaited Club Med Tinley beach resort development is set to kick off soon.
The Umhlanga-based property developer and investor Collins Residential leading the R1.6 billion project.
The Resort set to open in 2026 and is expected to boost international tourism to the province and SA.
Moneyweb understands that provincial government officials have been pushing for the project to be featured at the annual SA Investment Conference, but the developers have been holding back until it’s a done deal.
Source: Moneyweb
ESKOM
SA Electricity Minister, Ramokgopa says the heightened load shedding of Stage 6 this week was being treated as an extraordinary occurrence.
The indications for the rest of the week were showing an outlook of Stage 3 and 4 blackouts.
He said “There will be momentary setbacks, and this is what happened this week. The outlook now for the week is Stage 3, 4 load shedding,” he said.
Ramokgopa was speaking during a media briefing on Sunday at the GCIS head offices in Pretoria.
“We are going to take the necessary measures to resolve load shedding. We are not going to take short-cuts to defeat load shedding,” he said.
It would be short-term pain, but long-term gain as they were not willing to compromise on maintenance programmes in order to keep the lights on.
Global Markets
Stocks
US stock futures held steady on Monday as investors look ahead to key inflation data this week that could influence the path for US monetary policy.
Last week, the Dow fell 0.75%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.29% and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 1.93%.
Those losses came as a string of stronger-than-expected US economic data renewed fears that the Federal Reserve could tighten policy further.
Markets are now seeing a nearly 50% chance of a rate increase in November after an anticipated pause in September.
Traders will get a reading of consumer and producer inflation reports on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
Retail sales and consumer sentiment data will also be released this week.
Moreover, major technology firms Oracle and Adobe will report earnings on Monday and Thursday, respectively.
Source: Trading Economics
Bonds
Yields higher in Monday trading with the US10YT at 4.30% and Japanese 10Y JGB’s also surged to 0.7%, hitting its highest levels in nearly a decade.
JGB’s spiked after Bank of Japan Governor, Kazuo Ueda, recently stated that the central bank could end its negative interest rate policy when the 2% inflation target is sustainability achieved.
He added that the BOJ could have enough data by the end of the year to determine whether it can proceed with policy changes.
In the UK, the yield on the UK’s 10-year Gilt remained above 4.5%, staying close to its highest level since August 22, driven by expectations that interest rates would remain elevated for an extended period.
In the UK, Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey, informed the UK Parliament that the central bank was nearing the end of its series of interest rate hikes.
But left room for the possibility of further rate increases loomed due to persistent inflationary pressures.
Concurrently, another member of the Bank of England, Swati Dhingra, expressed concerns that interest rates had already reached a level that could potentially harm the economy if raised further.