Afternoon Note

11 September 2023

Support & Resistance Levels

Data This Week

Market Highlights

Market Close

South Africa

Global Markets

Overnight Headlines

ZAR stronger after BOJ hints at rate normalisation.

Today’s Market & Resistance Levels

Data This Week

Monday

13H00 **SA MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION 2.3% (ACTUAL) VS 4.4% EXPECTED

17H00 US CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS 3.4% F/CAST VS 3.5% PREVIOUS

Tuesday

08H00 UK unemployment 4.3% expected vs 4.2% previous

Wednesday

08H00 UK GDP MOM -0.2% VS 0.5% expected.

14h30 US INFLATION 3.6% expected vs 3.2% previous

14h30 US CORE INFLATION

Thursday

11h30 SA MINING PRODUCTION 0.5% VS 1.1% YOY PREVIOUS

14H30 US PPI 2.2% EXPECTED VS 2.4% YOY PREVIOUS

14H30 US RETAIL SALES 0.2% MOM VS 0.7% PREVIOUS

14H30 US JOBLESS CLAIMS 226K VS 216K PREVIOUS

Friday

16H00 US CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MICHIGAN 69.2 VS 69.5 PREVIOUS

Market Highlights

The Rand recovered sharply to reach 18.8800 in early trading

The local unit benefitting from a Dollar sell-off after the BOJ indicated they considering an end to 9 years of “zero rate” policies.

    • The Yen, the primary driver sending the Dollar sharply lower and the local unit benefiting from the news.

The week, however, dominated by key US inflation data on Wednesday.

Markets remain on edge and volatility like to increase ahead of the data.

Markets trading with a risk on sentiment with European stocks, and US equity futures all well bid in early Monday trading.

    • Yields are however rising on the back of a strong US data set ahead of CPI/PPI this week.
    • The 10YT at 4.29%

Earlier, SA manufacturing data reported at much lower than expected 2.3% yoy vs 4.4% expected and also -1.6% MoM 0.5% expected.

    • Indicating the continuous effects of the SA power crises.

Markets however ignoring the sharp drop and the focus remains on the Dollar.

Technically we’re trading R19/$ and the momentum has shifted ahead of the CPI report.

Market is now a SELL US DOLLARS on rallies (i.e. BUY ZAR).

Trade: SELL Dollars on Rallies

Market Close

DOW
+75 to 34,576

SP500
+6 to 4,465

NASDAQ
+12 to 15,380

Overnight Trading

Image: Trading Economics

South Africa

SA TOURISM – CLUB MED IN KZN DEVELOPMENT

It’s the worst-kept ‘secret’ on the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) North Coast, but the long-awaited Club Med Tinley beach resort development is set to kick off soon.

The Umhlanga-based property developer and investor Collins Residential leading the R1.6 billion project.

The Resort set to open in 2026 and is expected to boost international tourism to the province and SA.

Moneyweb understands that provincial government officials have been pushing for the project to be featured at the annual SA Investment Conference, but the developers have been holding back until it’s a done deal.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: Moneyweb

ESKOM

SA Electricity Minister, Ramokgopa says the heightened load shedding of Stage 6 this week was being treated as an extraordinary occurrence.

The indications for the rest of the week were showing an outlook of Stage 3 and 4 blackouts.

He said “There will be momentary setbacks, and this is what happened this week. The outlook now for the week is Stage 3, 4 load shedding,” he said.

Ramokgopa was speaking during a media briefing on Sunday at the GCIS head offices in Pretoria.

“We are going to take the necessary measures to resolve load shedding. We are not going to take short-cuts to defeat load shedding,” he said.

It would be short-term pain, but long-term gain as they were not willing to compromise on maintenance programmes in order to keep the lights on.

 

 

 

Global Markets

Stocks

US stock futures held steady on Monday as investors look ahead to key inflation data this week that could influence the path for US monetary policy.

Last week, the Dow fell 0.75%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.29% and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 1.93%.

Those losses came as a string of stronger-than-expected US economic data renewed fears that the Federal Reserve could tighten policy further.

Markets are now seeing a nearly 50% chance of a rate increase in November after an anticipated pause in September.

Traders will get a reading of consumer and producer inflation reports on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

Retail sales and consumer sentiment data will also be released this week.

Moreover, major technology firms Oracle and Adobe will report earnings on Monday and Thursday, respectively.

 

Source: Trading Economics

Bonds

Yields higher in Monday trading with the US10YT at 4.30% and Japanese 10Y JGB’s also surged to 0.7%, hitting its highest levels in nearly a decade.

JGB’s spiked after Bank of Japan Governor, Kazuo Ueda, recently stated that the central bank could end its negative interest rate policy when the 2% inflation target is sustainability achieved.

He added that the BOJ could have enough data by the end of the year to determine whether it can proceed with policy changes.

In the UK, the yield on the UK’s 10-year Gilt remained above 4.5%, staying close to its highest level since August 22, driven by expectations that interest rates would remain elevated for an extended period.

In the UK, Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey, informed the UK Parliament that the central bank was nearing the end of its series of interest rate hikes.

But left room for the possibility of further rate increases loomed due to persistent inflationary pressures.

Concurrently, another member of the Bank of England, Swati Dhingra, expressed concerns that interest rates had already reached a level that could potentially harm the economy if raised further.

Overnight Headlines

Asian Markets

Asian equities lower on Fed fears.

In Japan, The Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.43% to close at 32,468 on Monday, sliding for the third straight session, with technology stocks leading the decline.

Traders citing comments from BOJ governor Ueda as the following a spike in 10yr JGB’s.

Ueda stated that the central bank could end its negative interest rate policy when the 2% inflation target is sustainability achieved.

He added that the BOJ could have enough data by the end of the year to determine whether it can proceed with policy changes.

Source: Reuters

Energy

Oil prices drifting lower.

Brent crude futures fell toward $90/bl on Monday on a likely technical correction, while traders continued to assess various demand and supply factors.

Concerns about sluggish growth in China continued to grip commodity markets, as the world’s largest crude importer has yet to convince markets of an economic turnaround.

Stronger-than-expected US economic data also raised fears of further interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, pushing the dollar higher while pressuring commodities.

Meanwhile, oil prices remain close to their highest levels since November last year amid tightening global supplies.

Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia and Russia announced that they would extend voluntary supply cuts of a combined 1.3 million barrels per day until the end of the year.

Source: Gulf News

Metals

Precious metals drifting ahead of US CPI.

Gold rose above $1,920/oz , recouping some losses from last week amid a general dollar weakness, as investors cautiously awaited key US inflation readings that could influence the interest rate outlook.

Data released last week also showed that new unemployment claims in the US fell to their lowest in over six months in the final week of August, surprising market expectations of a moderate increase and contradicting recent data that suggested some softening in the labour market.

Moreover, the ISM Services PMI in the US also unexpectedly jumped to 54.5 in August, pointing to the strongest growth in the services sector in six months and posting well above forecasts of 52.5.

Markets are now seeing a hawkish pause from the Federal Reserve this month, where it could signal a potential rate increase in the next meeting.

Source: KITCO

Currencies

Dollar recovering after early morning losses.

The US dollar rebounding after BOJ governor opened the door to higher rates.

The Dollar index lower , but recovering at midday in the European session.

The buck back up at 104.75 , retreating slightly from six-month highs as investors cautiously awaited key US inflation readings that could influence the interest rate outlook.

The US will report consumer inflation data on Wednesday and producer inflation figures on Thursday, with analysts expecting a jump due to energy cost pressures.

Source : Forexlive