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Midday NOTE

7 August 2023

Good Afternoon

The ZAR losing ground in early trading on the back of a Dollar rebound.

Data This week

Monday

  • 14H30  US FED BOWMAN SPEECH

THURSDAY

  • 14H30  US INFLATION  3.3% YOY EXPECTED VS 3% PREVIOUS
  • 14H30  US INFLATION  0.2% MOM EXPECTED VS 0.2% PREVIOUS
  • 14H30  US CORE INFLATION 4.7% YOY EXPECTED UNCHANGED

Market Highlights:

The Rand weakness returned in early Monday trading, following Friday’s gain after the weaker than expected NFP report.

  • The local unit reaching R18.3600/$ in Friday trading before losing nearly 30 cents in Monday morning trading.
  • Traders citing USD short covering as well a rise in US yields ahead of another bumper US treasury issuance.
  • Yields rising to 4.10% after falling o as low as 4.03%.
  • This week the data calendar headlined with US inflation due on Thursday.
  • Markets are pricing for US CPI 3.3% YOY vs 3% previous.
  • Analysts citing higher energy and food prices as a concern that could push the consumer price index higher.
  • Higher CPI, implies a Hawkish FOMC that will lead to a spike in US yields and Dollar buying.
  • Trade : BUY USDZAR on dips.

SOUTH AFRICA

BRICS

  • Minister of International Relations and Cooperation Dr Naledi Pandor will address members of the media on Monday.
    • She will talk about the country’s state of readiness for the upcoming 15th BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) Summit.
    • The summit is scheduled for 22 to 24 August at the Sandton Convention Centre in Johannesburg.
  • The briefing is expected to outline logistical arrangements of the summit, expected outcomes, and the confirmation of international guests set to attend. Source EWN

CAPE TOWN TAXI STRIKES

  • Two people have been killed in the ongoing taxi strike in Cape Town.
    • Three others were injured after a motorist fired shots at protesters who were allegedly pelting his car.
    • Police are investigating a murder and attempted murder. Source Moneyweb

GLOBAL MARKETS

Stocks

Equities higher after weaker than expected US NFP report.

  • US stock futures rose on Monday as investors look ahead to a fresh batch of corporate earnings reports and key inflation data this week.
  • Dow futures edged up 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.2%.
     
  • Last week, the Dow fell 1.1%, the S&P 500 dropped 2.3% and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 2.9%.
    • Those losses came as a downgrade in US credit rating and a surge in Treasury yields hurt market sentiment.
      • Meanwhile, data on Friday showed that the US economy added less jobs than expected in July.
    • Investors now await earnings reports as well as US consumer inflation data later in the week.
    • CPI likely to give fresh insights on the economy and the path for interest rates.

Bonds
Yields rebounding in early Monday trading.

  • The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note retreated almost 10bps to below 4.1% on Friday as traders digest the payrolls report.
    • The US economy added a smaller-than-expected 187K jobs last month and wage growth did not slow as anticipated, but the unemployment rate surprisingly fell to 3.5%.
    • The report added to signs the job market is slowly cooling.
    • At the same time, traders continue to bet the Fed will leave the fed funds rate steady when it meets next month.
       
  • NB: the Treasury Department announced on Wednesday it plans to gradually increase the size of its auctions.
    • The department saying it will issue $103 billion of securities next week, slightly more than forecast.

 Market Closes:

  • DOW -150 to 35,065
  • SP500 -23 to 4,478
  • NASDAQ -50 to 13,909

OVERNIGHT HEADLINES

  image: Trading economics
 

Asian markets

  • Asian equities higher after US jobs report and drop in yields.
     
  • In Japan, the Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.19% to close at 32,254, reversing losses from earlier in the session as risk sentiment improved.
    • However, traders remained cautious while continuing to assess the impact of the BOJ’s surprise yield curve control policy adjustment in late July.
    • Notable gains were seen from index heavyweights such as Nippon Steel (3.4%). Source : Reuters

Energy

Oil prices higher as Saudi extends supply cuts.  

  • Brent crude held above $86 per barrel on Monday, hovering at the highest levels in four months.
  • Prices underpinned by Saudi Arabia and Russia’s announcement that they would extend voluntary supply cuts through next month to bolster oil prices.
  • Saudi Arabia said on Thursday it would extend its 1 million barrels per day production cut for another month, while Russia said it will also reduce its oil exports by 300,000 bpd in September.
  • Saudi Arabia also said its production cuts could be extended beyond September or deepened, catching markets off guard.
  • On the demand side, pro-growth stimulus measures in China and an improved economic outlook in the US provided additional support to crude prices. Source Gulf News

Metals
Precious metals losing more due to Dollar rally.

  • Gold fell below $1,940/oz on Monday, facing renewed pressure as investors prepare for key US inflation data this week that could influence the trajectory of interest rates.
  • The US consumer price index report will be released on Thursday, while the producer price index report is slated the following day.
  • Last week, data showed that the US economy added 187K jobs in July, less than market expectations for a 200K increase,
  • but the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 3.5% and wage growth slowed less than expected.
  • The metal has come under pressure since mid-July on bets that the Fed Reserve will keep monetary policy restrictive for some time weighed on sentiment. Source: Kitco

Currencies
Dollar higher on the back of rising US yields

  • The dollar index steadied around 102 on Monday after facing heightened volatility last week, as investors brace for US inflation data this week to guide the economic and monetary policy outlook.
  • The US consumer price index report will be released on Thursday, while the producer price index report is slated the following day.
  • On Friday, data showed that the US economy added 187K jobs in July, less than market expectations for a 200K increase.
  • However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 3.5% and wage growth slowed less than expected.
  • Still, the dollar has remained up more than 2% on bets that the Federal Reserve will keep monetary policy restrictive for some time supported the currency.
  • Source : Fxnews  

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