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Morning NOTE

20 December 2022


*Please note that this will be the last Morning Note for 2022. We will continue sending the Morning Note from the 3rd of January 2023.


  • The Rand opening stronger after Cyril Rampahosa’s comprehensive victory in the ANC elective conference.
    • The result confirming that CR will be the ANC’s leader as we head into the next election cycle.
    • Markets welcomed the news and the ZAR recovered from 17.7400 to head to a strongest level of 17.2000.
    • This morning Asian markets are lower this morning , on the back of some Risk aversion following a policy change by the BOJ .
      • I.e. allowing for higher interest rates, and this the only reason why we have not seen more ZAR gains.
  • The inflationary trend appears to have turned and we expect softer inflation data going forward.
    • This will likely slow the Fed down in 2023, and we expect a stronger ZAR as well as RISK assets in 2023.
    • Earlier German PPI also surprised to the downside, once again highlighting a reversal in global inflationary trends.

We have

  • Tuesday 15h30 : US BUILDING PERMITS EXPECTED 1.483milllion vs 1.512million previous ( ** insight into the effect of rate hikes on the  housing sector).
  • Thursday :15h30 : US GDP GROWTH QoQ EXPECTED +2.9% VS -0.6% PREVIOUS .
  • Friday 15H30 US PCE YOY  EXPECTED 5.5% VS 6% PREVIOUS  (** What the FED looks at for inflation).
  • TRADE : SELL USDZAR ON RALLIES (after Ramaphosa’s victory)

Expected Ranges

  • USDZAR :  Expect a range 17.0600-17.6600
    • Importers 17.2600-17.0600
    • Exporters 17.4600-17.6600
  • EURZAR :  Expect a range of 18.1700-18.6800
    • Importers 18.3100-18.1700
    • Exporters 18.5100-18.6800
  • GBPZAR :  Expect a range of 20.8200-21.3400
    • Importers 20.9800-20.8200
    • Exporters 21.1600-21.3400


  • USDZAR 17.3200
  • EURZAR 18.3600
  • GBPZAR 21.0000

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